The freshest housing metrics for July show a market that cooled from June’s pace nationally, even as price growth in some regions pulled further ahead of others.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales totaled 400,000 in July, down -5.7% from a revised June figure of 424,000, but still up +2.8% year over year versus July 2025’s 389,000. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate landed at 4.06 million, down -1.7% from a revised June figure of 4.13 million, but up +0.7% from a year ago.
On the supply side, NAR counted 1.54 million units of inventory, or 4.6 months of supply, down -1.9% from June and down -0.6% year over year.
Prices tell a divided story by region. The national median existing home price grew +2.0% to $434,100, the 37th consecutive month of annual gains. The Northeast led the pack at $563,800, up +5.2% year over year, followed by the Midwest at $342,900, up +2.8%. The South came in at $371,700, up just +0.9%, while the West posted the smallest regional gain at $622,200, up only +0.2% despite carrying the highest price tag in the country.
Borrowing costs are trending higher.
Fannie Mae now expects 30-year fixed rates to average 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, up from last month’s 6.3% estimate, while the MBA projects rates averaging 6.7% in both years. NAR’s own forecast is unchanged from April and isn’t due for a refresh until October.
Current Forecasts
Forecasts for 2026 Home Sales (August ’26 forecast)
- NAR: +4.0% (4.22 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million), revised April 2026
- MBA: +1.8% (4.84 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
- Fannie Mae: -0.3% (4.74 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
Forecasts for 2027 Home Sales (August ’26 forecast)
- MBA: +4.5% (5.06 million total home sales vs. 4.84 million)
- Fannie Mae: +4.3% (4.94 million total home sales vs. 4.74 million)
MBA Forecast for Mortgage Originations (August ’26 forecast)
- 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +11.4% (5.62 million loans vs. 5.04 million)
- Purchase: -0.1% (3.58 million loans vs. 3.59 million)
- Refi: +39.7% (2.03 million vs. 1.46 million)
- 2027 Total Mortgage Originations: -0.9% (5.56 million loans vs. 5.62 million)
- Purchase: +3.4% (3.70 million loans vs. 3.58 million)
- Refi: -8.6% (1.86 million vs. 2.03 million)
The takeaway
Sales cooled a bit from June, and that’s worth watching alongside a rising mortgage rate forecast. Since price growth looks so different depending on the region, from the Northeast’s +5.2% jump to the West’s nearly flat +0.2% gain, it pays to track what’s happening in your own local market rather than the national headlines.